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Sunday, June 9, 2013

Why Are Americans Driving Straight Into The Non-Recovery (And 800 On The S&P)?


Why Are Americans Driving Straight Into The Non-Recovery (And 800 On The S&P)?

Tyler Durden's picture

One look at Americans' driving habits represented by total vehicle miles travelled through the start of the Second Great Depressionshows a simple chart: an uninterrupted diagonal line from the lower left to the upper right, which makes sense - a growing economy means more commuting, means more commerce, means more demand to get from point A to point B, means more miles driven, and so on.
Then something happened.
As the chart below shows, starting in December of 2007, the date which according to the NBER is the beginning of the most recent recession (which also according to the NBER ended in June 2009)the number of miles driven flatlined and has been virtually unchanged around 3 trillion miles every year for the past five!
This, despite the US economy (GDP) supposedly rebounding in 2009 and once again at new all time highs. Maybe someone besides us has a slight problem with the chart below showing the complete break between GDP and driving habits starting in 2003, or around the time the Federal Reserve went all in to mask the collapse of the dot com bubble, by first reflating the housing bubble, and then after 2008, the central bank bubble where every single central bank has literally gone all-in on to reflate the Mother Of All Bubbles (MOAB).
Why the record disconnect?
And why instead of growing alongside the economy, as it did in the past as this year-over-year chart of miles driven shows, at least until the end of 2007, which until that point never had a year over year decline, have the driving habits of the American people - always so eager to
drive the 2 minute trip to their neighborhood retail outlet - suddenly
The chart below zooms into the recent history and shows that for the past year the 6 month moving trendline has been a disturbing one showing a consistent decline in the miles driven even as the economy, courtesy of the Fed's ongoing market manipulation, is said to be "recovering."
* * *
But we have saved the best for last: the chart below shows the correlation between miles driven and the S&P. Is it just us, or did something very odd happen in the late 1990s? And if the latter, is it safe to say that Bernanke has been responsible for about 50% of the upside in the Stanligrad & Poorski 500?
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Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:07 | 3639247new Frastric
Frastric's picture
There's some mileage left in the S&P...
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:12 | 3639262new smlbizman
smlbizman's picture
....were did all the rubber go that wore off all those tires for all those miles?
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:06 | 3639377new cossack55
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:07 | 3639379new francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture
The only purpose for the S&P anymore is to give idiots a false indication that the economy hasn't collapsed [which it HAS]...
The only issue anymore has to do with "bagholders"... Up until 2008, 'retail' could always be counted on to be bagholders'... But since then [especially since August 2010], an uncomfortable number of 1%'ers are set up to be bagholders [because it's all printed money that was given to them for free]...
So were in the 'Mexican Standoff' part of Reservoir Dogs... [& now it's cheesepope vs. cheesepope]... Have fun lads...
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:23 | 3639419new Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture
All this goes to prove that it faster, cheaper, and much more economical to sit at a desk at the Fed and print money than to drive all over doing things.

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:44 | 3639462new SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture
THE GREAT DIVERGENCE:  Ever since QE3, the FED and member banks have propped up the EQUITIES, TREASURY MARKET and REAL ESTATE, while at the same time destroying the price of gold and silver... thus killing investment demand.
However, the FED'S BUBBLE will pop and their will be a stampede into hard assets at some point in time.  I wrote about this in the link below:
Silver Investment Demand: The Ticking Time Bomb

Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:52 | 3639478new ninja247
ninja247's picture
another great indicator for growth is diesel consumption. 
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:08 | 3639249new Racer
Racer's picture
Gald to see it written as it should be... the Second Great Depression, or arguably the Greater Depression
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:18 | 3639269new max2205
max2205's picture
That spy chart shows that ben has stabilized the market...not.  ben and greenspan ...useless except to panic out the sheep and line banker profits
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:12 | 3639255new AgLand
AgLand's picture
Why has driving flatlined?
Cheap Peak Oil now ruled the market. When prices rise to a certain level, driving drops off as people get priced out of discretionary trips.
Throw in the non-inflation that filters thru everything touched by oil and the avge US family is getting hosed.
If avge prices rise more expect demand to fall off more until incomes adjust accordingly. Or prices drop again.
Thank you Bennie and the Boys for screwing over the nation in favor of your banksters buddies.
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:11 | 3639261new q99x2
q99x2's picture
I used to drive a lot but haven't so much since I took up jogging about 3 years ago. Maybe that's it.
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:20 | 3639409new logicalman
logicalman's picture
Gave up my car in favour of a very nice mountain bike 3 years ago.
I'm now fit as the proverbial butcher's dog and have spent gas money on metal.
So far, so good.
Feel better both physically and mentally.
At 58 I can keep up with my 18 year old son over a couple of hours hard trail riding.
Hardly any downside at all, except for taking empties back to the beer store!
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 14:31 | 3639440new James_Cole
James_Cole's picture
I'm now fit as the proverbial butcher's dog and have spent gas money on metal.
So far, so good.
Feel better both physically and mentally.
That's what jogging and biking will do for you. Funny, a zillion diet programs out there that don't work when the answer is pretty simple..
Also, whenever I see these stats related to driving being on the downturn the only thing I can think is GREAT. 
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:16 | 3639265new Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

I wonder if the EMPLOYMENT bubble bursting might be a contributing factor?
When tens of millions of people lose their jobs, it sure as hell will have a difference in the aggregate number of miles driven.
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:45 | 3639329new tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture
Half the population is paid to stay home and drink beer.
Sun, 06/09/2013 - 13:53 | 3639348new DeadFred
DeadFred's picture
The Budweisers don't drive themselves to the liquor store though

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